In 2008, when the San Francisco to Anaheim “Bullet Train” proposal was brought to the voters, the idea sounded some what straightforward and even a bit futuristic. After all, the plan presented was only $34 Billion dollars from California taxpayers who would receive a “Japanese-style”, 220-mile-an-hour train ride between the two cities by the year 2020. Once we removed our “rose colored glasses”, the reality of government’s ability to tackle any project in a clear-cut manner came to light. Over the past five years that simple plan has gotten very complex and extremely expensive.
First, there have been four price changes in four years…all on an upward trend. Last year, Governor Brown intervened. The High Speed Rail Authority’s (HSRA) grandiose plans that had sky rocketed to a whopping $98-billion was pared down to $68.4 Billion and a 2032 completion date. However, in order to bring the cost down, the HSRA was forced to accept a new plan where the bullet train would have to share tracks with low speed trains in and around its two destination cities. What the average speed of this new train will be has yet to be revealed – but we can be certain it will not be the “speeding bullet” of 220-miles an hour station to station as originally touted.
The Governor’s plan added another tweak to the construction plans; the rail line had to be built in phases. For example, Phase One would be a 130-mile segment connecting the suburbs of Bakersfield to the desert town of Madera in the Central Valley. To get that segment of the line finished the cost would be $8.6 Billion, a full one-fourth of the original cost of the entire train line.
Unless I am grossly mistaken, California does not have $8.6 Billion lying in a bank somewhere. But then again the park authority did discover a mysterious bank account a year or so ago, anything is possible….. Except, just this week, the HSRA announced plans to sell bonds to raise the nearly $9 Billion, which is political-speak for borrowing money, long term, from investors. In turn, the investors will receive their $6.8 billion returned to them with interest – lots of interest, $700 Million a year in interest only payments and for a lot of years – 35 years to be exact.
The plan goes something like this. The feds will provide California with $3.3 Billion (which could otherwise be used for tours of the White House, or some other non consequential item) of matching funds for the first phase of the project. Since the state has no funds to match, the High Speed Rail folks voted 5 – 0 at their recent board meeting, to package the loan…in a clever way.
They will borrow (issue bonds to lenders) $3.7 Billion, thus qualifying for the matching funds from D.C. Here is where things get interesting. $2.6 Billion will be used to build the first 30 miles of high speed rail tracks in the middle of the Central Valley. The remainder of the money will go to repairing existing tracks used by today’s commuter trains.
A closer look at the complete financing package for the 35 year loan reveals that a 30 mile stretch of tracks will cost taxpayers $700 Million a year for 35 years, just to pay the interest-only on the first phase of the loan. In three and a half decades, total interest payments will be $5.6 Billion plus the original $8.6 Billion dollar loan amount or a total loan payback of $14.2 Billion. Yes friends, for that whopping price tag, taxpayers get 30 miles of train tracks with no engine or coaches yet on the tracks. And to date, not one piece of property has been purchased for the route.
Once the HSRA has finished the first 30 mile project, it must raise the remainder of the $59.4-billion to finish the tracks. And, for the entire project to get approved it must complete the Environmental Impact Report (EIR}), apply for more than 120 construction permits from various agencies, purchase approximately 1,100 parcels of land, and settle several outstanding lawsuits already filed in the courts to stop the construction. At least two court hearings are scheduled this Spring contesting both the environmental impacts of the train route and questioning whether the state is actually conforming the entire project to the concept voters approved when Prop 1-A was passed five years ago.
One engineering firm estimates the state would be required to spend $3.5 Million a day, for 365 days a year to complete the project on time. If that were accomplished, the HSRA would set a new American record for the “fastest rate of construction in U.S. transportation history”. In April, the non-partisan Legislative Analyst office analyzed Governor Brown’s new plan for the bullet train and in a ten-page report, revealed the project “relies on speculative funding”. One might think that is something of an understatement. Assuming Transportation Secretary, Ray LaHood, can send the state the $3.3 Billion from Washington and the state will borrow the phase one construction money, where will the remaining $55 Billion come from for the entire project?
William Kempton, CEO of the Orange County Transportation Authority examined the HSRA proposal last May and clearly found that because tracks would be shared with lower speed rails, the project no longer a bullet train. He further found that the route will stop in Los Angeles where there is no high speed route into Anaheim or Orange County, as was originally envisioned. Elaine Howle, the California State Auditor, examined the latest version of the Bullet Train and discerned that the plan omits $97 Billion in operating and maintenance costs. That alone is a glaring omission.
Kings County officials filed a lawsuit in 2011 claiming all of the current plans violate the ballot measure that approved the train …it costs a lot more and doesn’t deliver the vision of a Japanese Style high speed system that voters were sold. That case is still working it way through the courts.
As the California Cap and Trade auctions began to take shape, Governor Brown proposed
the auction revenues could be used to fund part of the project. But after the first two auctions were held, one in November 2012 and the other in February 2013, the state’s anticipated revenues of $1 Billion raised at each auction fell short, netting the state less than $300 Million. The idea was scrapped.
Undeterred, by all the naysayer’s, the High Speed Rail Authority, with the solid support of State Senate leader Daryll Steinberg and Governor Brown, continues to push forward with the project. However, what if the rest of the money isn’t raised or some of the other substantial hurdles confronting the project can’t be cleared….then what?
Quite simply, California will wind up with 30 miles of train tracks in the middle of the San Joaquin Valley while taxpayers pay off a 35 year construction loan – or rather “the just approved HRSA bond issue”.
In the end, even if the entire project is completed under the latest revisions, commuters will then be left with a fundamental choice. Do I drive to the train station, park and board the train which isn’t really a bullet train and travel from L.A. to San Francisco for an anticipated time of over 2 hours, or, do I go to the airport, hop a commuter flight and arrive at my destination 70 minutes later?